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Gambling on a Nuclear Future
Nearly 30 years after Chernobyl, Belarus seek energy sovereignty with Russia’s help
By: John Brannen, Staff Writer
In the spring of 1986, life in the small city of Astravyets in the northwest corner of Belarus – then part of the Soviet Union – carried on as usual. Labourers went to the state-run factories for work, farmers sowed their crops and children went to school. It was weeks before the city learned that around 600 miles to the south, the worst nuclear accident in history had occurred, spewing highly radioactive Iodine-131 all over the city, country and most of Europe.
It is in Astraveyets, however, that almost 30 years after the Chernobyl disaster, Belarus’ first nuclear power plant will go online. President Alexander Lukashenka, in an unusually modest moment, said the construction of a nuclear power plant in Belarus is “nothing extraordinary.” A project of this scale will have long lasting consequences and if not extraordinary, the issue of nuclear power in Belarus is important, not just for the country, but the region.
Belarus in Brief
Belarus is an inconspicuous country of less than 10 million people in Eastern Europe. It’s nestled in between Russia and the European Union, though it’s undoubtedly friendlier with its immense Eastern neighbour. Almost 22 years ago, Belarus and Russia were under the same red banner of the Soviet Union. While in the USSR, it underwent a period of ‘Russification’: the elimination of Belarusian language, culture and symbols and replacement with Russian ones.
WWII was devastating and has left a deep scar on the Belarusian consciousness. The Nazi invasion and Soviet counter attack destroyed entire villages and towns and killed a quarter of the Belarusian population
Despite this, Belarus was gradually restored after the war, with the capital city of Minsk being almost entirely rebuilt from the ground up in the grandiose Stalinist style. It became an industrial powerhouse within the Soviet Union, with its unparalleled trucks and tractors sold throughout the Eastern Bloc.
The Invisible Enemy
In the true Soviet style of shabbiness and thriftiness, a series of cheap and inherently dangerous nuclear power plants were built throughout the USSR. The most infamous plant was built in 1977 in Ukraine a little over 10 kilometres from the border of Belarus. Officially, the V.I. Lenin Nuclear Power Station or simply Chernobyl after the nearby city produced about 10 per cent of Ukraine’s power.
In the early morning hours of April 26, 1986, an experiment at Chernobyl nuclear power plant escaped the control of technicians and scientists. The result was an explosion, reactor meltdown and radioactive fire that burned for days. Deadly particles were ejected from the reactor and landed throughout Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and most of Europe. Because this radioactive cloud was heading toward Moscow, Soviet authorities decided to seed clouds over Belarus to literally rain radiation and prevent the fallout from reaching the capital. Due to the clouds, rains and prevailing winds, 60 per cent of the fallout from the disaster landed and remains in Belarus.
[pullquote]literally rain radiation and prevent the fallout from reaching the capital.[/pullquote]
Europe’s Last Dictator
Belarus has been independent country since the USSR’s dissolution and began to reintroduce its native culture and language. Despite initial democratic reforms in 1991, freedoms have slowly been curtailed by the country’s first current President, Alexander Lukashenka, who was dubbed Europe’s last dictator by the US. The press and opposition groups are marginalized and elections are widely regarded as unfair and unfree by international observers.
It should be noted that though the West has labeled Lukashenka a tyrant and dictator, credible polls in Belarus demonstrate time and time again he is popular with the people. His simple, brutally honest approach to everything, while unpopular with the international community, easily scores points with the rural Belarusian voter. This isn’t to say his tactics in retaining power are highly questionable and brutal (Belarus’ secret police are still known as the KGB).
Lukashenka, now into his 19th year as Belarus’ head of state, has a love-hate relationship with Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union. For a time, there was talk of a Russia-Belarus economic and political union with a single currency and military. But with two strong-headed men at the helm of these two countries (Putin in Russia), the pair have locked horns diplomatically for the idea to have any teeth.
From Russia With Love
Belarus’ gaze away from reforms and the EU and towards entrenchment and Russia is partly about nostalgia and partly about economic perks in the form of energy subsidies. The Druzhba Pipeline moves oil and natural gas from Russia to Europe. Due to geography, the pipeline passes through Belarus. Close relations had meant for nearly a decade that resource-deficient Belarus received dirt cheap oil and gas from its neighbour. Once upon a time, people joked that when Belarus negotiated oil-delivery charges with Russia, it paid only the costs of the telephone call.
In 2004 that all changed. Russia wanted to eliminated the discounts and own a stake in Belarus’ natural gas distributor Beltransgaz. Incensed, Lukashenka siphoned gas from the pipeline and Russia turned off the gas completely, resulting in a temporary shortage in Europe. After a brief cessation of hostilities, tempers flared again regarding prices in 2007.
Russia depends on Belarus to move its oil and gas to Europe, while Belarus needs discounted Russian fuels to keep the lights on. One joke in Belarus is that their radiators inform them when Russia halts energy supplies.
[pullquote]One joke in Belarus is that their radiators inform them when Russia halts energy supplies.[/pullquote]
A New Power
The waning significance of the Chernobyl disaster coupled with the energy disputes with Russia opened up discussions for an alternative solution to Belarus’ energy woes. Though there were plans to build a nuclear power plant in near Minsk in the late 1980s, Chernobyl prevented it from happening indefinitely. Until now.
Shortly after the energy dispute in 2007, Lukashenka announced that Belarus needed a nuclear power plant because natural gas had become a political issue. To him, achieving energy independence is crucial for political independence.
However, because of Belarus’ mounting debts and deficits and the lack of domestic knowledge and infrastructure for nuclear power it must rely an unlikely partner: Russia.
An Expert Opinion
Dr. David Marples is a Distinguished University Professor in the Department of History and Classics at the University of Alberta and the author of over a dozen books ranging from Chernobyl to contemporary Belarus and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia is not only providing the loans and personnel for the plant, but the Russian-owned Atomstroyexport nuclear power equipment will be building it. “It is also using Russian fuel,” said Marples. “Theoretically Belarus could ‘buy out’ Russia at some future stage, but it will still be dependent on Russian expertise and technology.”
Belarus is also not being forthright with its neighbour Lithuania about what the environmental implications of the plant may be. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe established the Epsoo Convention, which mandates an environmental impact assessment. “Lithuania has expressed concern, particularly given the Astravec (Astravyets) plant’s location in its border,” Marples noted. “There have been discussions at various levels but the Belarusian side has refused to change the location.”
While regional concerns regarding the power plant are known, domestic opposition is harder to gauge. In Belarus, rallies, protests and public gatherings unsanctioned by the government are illegal and dispersed, sometimes violently. As Marples put it, “People are afraid of nuclear plants, but not enough to get arrested over them,”
So, what then? For Belarus, a decision has been made to pursue a nuclear power plant, with money and knowledge it doesn’t have. But with the two countries upping the ante to score points at home, natural gas and oil from Russia are, as Lukashenka stated, more political than economical. Dr. Marples asks the question: “Can Belarus continue to remain dependent on oil and gas if Russia uses them as a political tool to gain more influence over the Belarusian economy. Truly it is a Catch-22 situation.”
[pullquote] A decision has been made to pursue a nuclear power plant, with money and knowledge it doesn’t have.[/pullquote]
Belarus has struggled with a sense of national identity for centuries. It has been dominated by Soviets, Nazis and now, Lukashenka reigns through electoral authoritarianism. A domestic, nuclear energy source may alleviate some issues in Belarus but, as Marples notes, it won’t resolve the fundamental problems in the Belarusian state. “Foreign currency depletion, high inflation, labor outflow and population decline … sale of valuable companies to Russia.” Marples also notes that Russia is also buying up Belarusian companies, from trucking to cell phones to other natural resources.
Time will tell whether or not a nuclear power plant was a game changer for Belarus or results in greater dependence on Russia. As Lukashenka noted, the decision to build may not be “extraordinary” but it is important for the average Belarusian right up to Belarus’ neighbouring countries. With thoughts of the short sightedness and devastating effects of events like Chernobyl, discussion and decisions for nuclear power in Belarus shouldn’t be taken lightly.
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