Gambling on a Nuclear Future

His simple, brutally honest approach to everything, while unpopular with the international community, easily scores points with the rural Belarusian voter. This isn’t to say his tactics in retaining power are highly questionable and brutal (Belarus’ secret police are still known as the KGB).

Lukashenka, now into his 19^th year as Belarus’ head of state, has a love-hate relationship with Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union. For a time, there was talk of a Russia-Belarus economic and political union with a single currency and military. But with two strong-headed men at the helm of these two countries (Putin in Russia), the pair have locked horns diplomatically for the idea to have any teeth.

From Russia With Love

Belarus’ gaze away from reforms and the EU and towards entrenchment and Russia is partly about nostalgia and partly about economic perks in the form of energy subsidies. The Druzhba Pipeline moves oil and natural gas from Russia to Europe. Due to geography, the pipeline passes through Belarus. Close relations had meant for nearly a decade that resource-deficient Belarus received dirt cheap oil and gas from its neighbour. Once upon a time, people joked that when Belarus negotiated oil-delivery charges with Russia, it paid only the costs of the telephone call.

In 2004 that all changed. Russia wanted to eliminated the discounts and own a stake in Belarus’ natural gas distributor Beltransgaz. Incensed, Lukashenka siphoned gas from the pipeline and Russia turned off the gas completely, resulting in a temporary shortage in Europe. After a brief cessation of hostilities, tempers flared again regarding prices in 2007.

Russia depends on Belarus to move its oil and gas to Europe, while Belarus needs discounted Russian fuels to keep the lights on. One joke in Belarus is that their radiators inform them when Russia halts energy supplies.

[pullquote]One joke in Belarus is that their radiators inform them when Russia halts energy supplies.[/pullquote]

A New Power

The waning significance of the Chernobyl disaster coupled with the energy disputes with Russia opened up discussions for an alternative solution to Belarus’ energy woes. Though there were plans to build a nuclear power plant in near Minsk in the late 1980s, Chernobyl prevented it from happening indefinitely. Until now.

Shortly after the energy dispute in 2007, Lukashenka announced that Belarus needed a nuclear power plant because natural gas had become a political issue. To him, achieving energy independence is crucial for political independence.

However, because of Belarus’ mounting debts and deficits and the lack of domestic knowledge and infrastructure for nuclear power it must rely an unlikely partner: Russia.

An Expert Opinion

Dr. David Marples is a Distinguished University Professor in the Department of History and Classics at the University of Alberta and the author of over a dozen books ranging from Chernobyl to contemporary Belarus and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Russia is not only providing the loans and personnel for the plant, but the Russian-owned Atomstroyexport nuclear power equipment will be building it. “It is also using Russian fuel,” said Marples. “Theoretically Belarus could ‘buy out’ Russia at some future stage, but it will still be dependent on Russian expertise and technology.”

Belarus is also not being forthright with its neighbour Lithuania about what the environmental implications of the plant may be. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe established the Epsoo Convention, which mandates an environmental impact assessment. “Lithuania has expressed concern, particularly given the Astravec (Astravyets) plant’s location in its border,” Marples noted. “There have been discussions at various levels but the Belarusian side has refused to change the location.”

While regional concerns regarding the power plant are known, domestic opposition is harder to gauge.