Sifting Through The Swine Flu Hysteria

Every year, the WHO estimates that seasonal influenza typically infects anywhere from three to five million people severely with a death count of some 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide.

The panic around pandemics and the money behind them

By Victoria Chau, Staff Writer

Image sourced in part from: nobadtrips.com

By July of 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of swine flu H1N1 a pandemic. This was amidst a worldwide panic as the WHO continuously provided updates as to the seriousness of this new flu strain. Swine flu was deemed a pandemic after 332 deaths and the confirmation of less than 80,000 cases of swine flu around the globe.

Where, oh where, did the first piggy come from?
Back in 2005, during November, a Wisconsin teenager helped his brother-in-law butcher 31 pigs for a nearby slaughterhouse. That same teenage boy spent his Thanksgiving with his family who had purchased a chicken and decided to keep the animal in the house because of the cold weather. As December rolled around, he suffered from a flu that lasted three days, went to see a doctor, recovered, and went home. A very typical story, with nothing unusual, except for the fact that the influenza virus that the boy suffered from was very different from the seasonal flu. It was a combination of wild-bird flu, a human strain of flu, and a strand from pigs.

That minor episode was part of the origin of the swine flu that began to garner international attention in April of 2009, when Mexico and the United States reported an “influenza-like illness” in some of their citizens. Many of these cases of influenza-like illnesses were confirmed through laboratory results to be identical in both Mexico and the United States. This obviously caused concern as it was becoming a major outbreak in Mexico, with a suspected death toll of around 65, the majority of which were healthy young adults.

Fear of the Swine
Much of the scare surrounding the swine flu was due to the fact that it was a new flu strain we hadn’t yet experienced which was attacking healthy age groups instead of only the elderly and the young. The WHO became especially concerned as its laboratories noted many genetic differences between this H1N1 strain and the seasonal influenza which was coupled with the ease that the swine flu spread geographically.

Another factor that increased both the WHO’s concern and the mass panic around the world was its difference in disease pattern from the seasonal flu. This H1N1 strain produced a severe form of pneumonia that, unlike the seasonal flu strain, seemed to be especially fatal. Within four months (April 2009 to July 2009), the WHO confirmed that swine flu had spread to over 120 countries. In this time the WHO had already declared a pandemic and was scrambling with governments to get vaccines available before the flu season of October-November began in the western hemisphere.

Among the panic that swine flu was spreading rapidly throughout the world was the fear that the H1N1 strain could also mutate, similar to the fears of avian flu (H5N1) evolving. A mutation would cause the H1N1 strain to become more dangerous by increasing the fatality rate among those infected.

The WHO was so convinced of a pandemic from the swine flu’s easy transferability from person to person and the potential for thousands of deaths, that the definition of a pandemic was actually changed so that swine flu would fit the parameters. Initially the WHO’s pandemic classification was for a disease that had “several, simultaneous epidemics worldwide with enormous numbers of deaths and illnesses.”

The swine flu of 2009 met the first part of the parameters but not the latter. The WHO altered its definition in the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response (A WHO Guidance Document) of an influenza pandemic to “occur when an animal influenza virus to which most humans have no immunity acquires the ability to cause sustained chains of human-to-human transmission leading to community-wide outbreaks,” so that swine flu qualified as a pandemic. It goes to show that the WHO was so concerned or determined that H1N1 was a pandemic, that it worked with the results of the H1N1 cases to classify swine flu as one.

Wait! I’ve seen this piggy before!
One of the main reasons for the mass hysteria that was induced by the WHO, the media, health agencies and the governments was that it was primarily affecting the young and otherwise hale. With seasonal influenza, those that became infected were always the very young, the elderly, and those already suffering from another sickness. H1N1 became very worrisome once the data came in showing that the average age of deaths was 37 years old, compared to 75 years for the seasonal flu.

However, after the flurry of panic, it appears that there’s a very good reason for the young and healthy to be more easily infected: the older generation has seen this type of strain before. H1N1 was widely touted as a “first” and “never-seen-never-before-encountered” influenza. This was very misleading, as H1N1 is not only related to a string of viruses from 1918 – 1956, but was also seen in an outbreak in the United States in 1976.

Back in 1976, there were clinical trials conducted that demonstrated that those born prior to 1956 were for the most part protected from the strain. Carrying this forward to the situation in 2009, most of the population over 50 years old are somewhat familiar with the H1N1 virus, providing them with more immunity against swine flu. For those younger than 50, their bodies have not yet experienced any exposure to H1N1, which is why this younger (and healthier) age group suffered more severely.

So why was this critical information never widely known or publicly provided by the media? It appears that it was simply glossed over; the high level of panic was simply maintained by the media, the WHO and the governments, and the general population never questioned it. Everyone was so busy trying to find masks and where they could possibly get Tamiflu or Relenza (the two main anti-influenza medications) before the H1N1 vaccine was available, that the masses never bothered to look for this information.

The WHO that cried wolf pig
Even today, after the swine flu pandemic was declared over, not many realize the extent to which the panic was unnecessary when looking at the numbers. Every year, the WHO estimates that seasonal influenza typically infects anywhere from three to five million people severely with a death count of some 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide. To this date, H1N1 has killed approximately 18,000 people…around the world.

According to Health Canada, some 4,000 to 8,000 Canadians die each year from the seasonal flu from pneumonia or other related complications, as of January 28, 2010, the Public Health Agency of Canada reported 426 deaths from H1N1 – substantially less than the seasonal flu. In the United States, they see an average of 36,000 deaths from the seasonal flu annually, which are double the deaths that were seen for swine flu on a global scale.

[pullquote]It may be that in the future, when there is truly a pandemic, the public will be much more skeptical and ignore warnings from the governments or health agencies like the WHO.[/pullquote]

So why the WHO-induced panic? Speaking with Michael Fumento, journalist, author, attorney, researcher and analyst who has been writing about pandemics since AIDS in 1987, provides some further insight to the WHO that cried wolf, er, pig that is. Fumento has been on record from the very beginning, arguing that the WHO “had absolutely no reason to declare it a pandemic because it was clearly vastly milder than typical seasonal flu,” which is supported by the data.

The reason he provides for the WHO’s declaration of the swine flu as a pandemic is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The WHO has been asserting since 2005 that avian flu (H5N1) was a serious threat that could possibly evolve to become a pandemic. These assertions have come despite numerous studies that state avian flu is very far from taking that type of evolutionary step.

Fumento contends that when swine flu began to garner attention, the WHO simply said, “See! We were right! There was a pandemic on the horizon!” and the media lapped it up, and consequently, so too did the general public. Much like the children’s fable, the WHO had cried pandemic, and we as the villagers simply said “where?!”

What worsens the whole situation is that the governments and other health agencies were content to arm themselves against this threat of a supposed pandemic when really they should have known better. When the WHO elevated swine flu to pandemic status, governments began to order swine flu vaccine as well as Tamiflu and Relenza—anti-influenza medications that were provided to patients after they contracted H1N1—without questioning whether or not stockpiles were necessary.

Understandably, the WHO is an international organization that should be both accountable and transparent in their actions, but the key words there are ‘should be’. No matter if the WHO was acting out of their own political motivations as Fumento argues, or were simply being excessively cautious with a flu they were unfamiliar with, he asserts that if he knew that swine flu wasn’t a pandemic, so too should have the health officials and governments.

The data was available to everyone; it was a matter of looking past the hysteria of these deaths that the media and the WHO purported were popping up everywhere, anywhere, and constantly, and actually examining the hard facts. And the fact remains that had we done what Fumento did and went straight to the sources, “looked at the NUMBERS and not the pronouncements,” we would have known the truth: there was no pandemic on the scale the WHO and other health officials claimed where hundreds of thousands were at risk of dying.

Vaccinating against the pig
So, backtrack to July of 2009: the WHO has declared swine flu a pandemic, the masses continue on in their hysteria, and governments are scrambling. The solution to all this is vaccinations for everybody!

Via nobadtrips.com

Interestingly enough, Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, an epidemiologist who at the time was on the European Council, points the blame to the avian flu outbreak of 2004, since the panic during the time resulted in governments instigating ‘sleeping contracts’.

These sleeping contracts were with pharmaceutical companies that are automatically triggered when the WHO declares a pandemic, to lessen response time in the production of vaccines, antivirals and any other necessary medication. Dr Wodarg claims that “in this way, the producers of vaccines are sure of enormous gains without having any financial risks,” so that when 2009 rolled around and the WHO freaked out about swine flu, or became overly cautious if you prefer, all the sleeping contracts held between governments and the big pharmaceutical companies became active.

The result is that 25 pharmaceutical companies began racing to produce more than a billion doses of swine flu vaccines to the awaiting governments and the people. Of these 25 drug companies, more than 80 per cent of production was to be accounted by five major ‘big pharmas,’ which are: Sanofi Pasteur of France, AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) of Britain, Baxter of the United States, and Novartis of Switzerland.

Canada also was a part of this scramble to prepare the population for the H1N1 vaccination program to be rolled out, ordering some 60 million doses of the adjuvant vaccine (which is comprised of two doses, with additives that increase its effectiveness). The cost for both the vaccines and the process of vaccination, developing strategic and emergency plans, keeping an eye on the outbreak situation, paying for staff and so forth totalled a whopping $1.5 billion, and that was only by November 19, 2009.

The costs for the H1N1 vaccination, due largely to its pandemic status and the WHO’s recommendation that special patented products be used, is staggering compared to the cost of a seasonal flu shot. Take, for example, the province of Alberta: it placed a $100 million figure on the H1N1 vaccination, whereas it usually spends $3.2 million on the seasonal flu shot. That’s an extra $96.8 million that could have been used elsewhere in the province, and the same applies to all the provinces and territories across Canada.

By the end of the typical flu season (starting in October), approximately 45 per cent of Canada’s population was vaccinated against H1N1, which left some 20 million doses unused. The cost doesn’t decrease with lack of use; Canadians will pay the $1.5 billion either way for the vaccine and all the programs that were put in place. Indeed, Medical Officer of Health for Ontario’s Hasting and Prince Edward Counties Health Unit, Dr. Richard Schabas, tells the Globe and Mail that this has been “the most overhyped, overblown exercise I’ve ever been a part of,” due to the exaggeration of the swine flu’s severity and fatality.

Profiting from the swine flu bill
Canada racked up a hefty bill of $1.5 billion, the United States spent more than $6 USD billion and Britain is looking at more than £1.5 billion. The end result? Billions of dollars wasted across all the continents and batches upon batches upon batches of unused swine flu vaccinations. The winners in this case are undoubtedly the WHO (if declaring a pandemic was their goal no matter the data provided) and big pharma.

Of course, there is always a possibility that the swine flu could have exploded into a true pandemic of unprecedented proportions, with the death toll becoming higher than even the 1918 influenza. But with all things, there is always a possibility. The likelihood of it actually happening was extremely low in this case, but nonetheless the world played into the hands of the WHO while the major pharmaceutical companies walked away with billions of dollars for their bottom line.

That’s not to say that the pharmaceutical companies can truly be blamed for increasing the mass hysteria of swine flu (although they did contribute to the hype around avian flu); they merely took the opportunity like any other corporation and did what was being asked of them.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), one of the major producers of the H1N1 vaccine, stands to make more than £1.5 billion (£1 billion alone in the fourth quarter) due to the pandemic threat of 2009, the majority of which stems from the delivery of 195 million doses of vaccines to a variety of countries. GSK is also the manufacturer of Relenza, which, like the anti-influenza Tamiflu, is being used to treat those that are already infected with H1N1.

Statements released from GSK have rejected any claims that have been made in regards to the company taking advantage of the pandemic as it states that the costs of developing the vaccine have been as much as £1.5 billion, a large portion of which went toward ensuring its facilities could increase production of the vaccine once all the clinical trials have been completed.

The major pharmaceutical companies have unquestionably gained where the taxpayers have lost, and in some cases GSK in particular proved unwilling to re-negotiate with the countries from which it had received orders for swine flu vaccines when it became apparent there were going to be too many doses wasted. Indeed, pharmaceutical giant Baxter of the United States was willing to allow Britain to use the break clause in its contract, whereas the Britain-GSK contract held no break clause.

Where, oh where, did that piggy go?
By mid-August 2010, the WHO finally called the swine flu pandemic over with the end result of 18,000 deaths worldwide – a figure that doesn’t even come near the number of deaths from the seasonal flu or the millions that died in previous pandemics such as the 1918 influenza. In spite of this, media releases and statements from the WHO firmly reiterate that the swine flu was a pandemic and that the lack of fatalities was from luck rather than a lack of danger from H1N1.

On a side note, the 2009 flu season actually saw a drop in deaths related to the flu, as H1N1 actually eliminated the seasonal flu since it was more contagious but less severe.

We cannot fault the major pharmaceutical companies for merely fulfilling their end of the bargain that was set up as a protection measure in the event of a pandemic, but we can certainly look to question the WHO, other health agencies and our own governments for going along with a ‘pandemic’ that was clearly not on that level of severity in terms of the fatalities caused by the swine flu. Even the government in a time of panic can use the hysteria to introduce programs or ‘fast-track’ vaccines that normally would take longer to implement.

These processes were supposed to save lives, not unnecessarily waste huge sums of taxpayer dollars. Although across Europe there has been a public outcry after the initial panic and hysteria died down, we have seen nothing of the like in North America. The public is simply going along with whatever the media has portrayed and has not done enough digging on their own to find out the true facts.

In all actuality, there is not much digging needed, just a mere sifting through the dirt to determine what is truly important: the facts and the recognition of massive media hype. It’s all about being smart about what is being said in the news, no matter the source.

In the end, of course the pharmaceutical companies profited monetarily, but what is even more important is what have we lost from this unnecessary hysteria. It may be that in the future, when there is truly a pandemic, the public will be much more sceptical and ignore warnings from the governments or health agencies like the WHO. After all, in the midst of the chaos we need to be able to look towards those that are in positions of power to lead with the surety that they will act responsibly and transparently.

ARB Team
Arbitrage Magazine
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